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I believe we ‘might’ have finally hit bottom. The reason, our 2nd quarter closings for all single family were higher than the previous 3 years. Not much higher, but still a positive trend. However, should our economy get worse (could it get any worse?) our housing market could still fall further.

Closing for all single family in June 2011 were 7.4% higher than June 2010 or 5,745 versus 5,347. The last time a June had more closings was 2007 with 7,432. The all time high June was 8,958 closings in 2006, so we have a long way to go to break any records. However, a 4 year June high is good to report.

There were 4,927 single family detached closings in June 2011. This was an increase of 9.7% over the same year ago period and after lags are included this will be the first year-to-year double digit percentage increase since May 2010. This is also the 6th year-to-year increase in closings out of the last seven reporting periods for single family detached.

Single family attached is not faring as well as detached. There were 818 closings for single familyattached in June 2011. This was a decrease of 4.3% over June 2010 and the 4th year-to-year monthly decline in 2011.

The second half of 2010 was very weak. If we continue to show increases the second half of 2011 this could be our first annual year-to-year gain in closings for all single family since 2005-2006. I believe this will happen, but still in a weak market.

One of the main reasons why closings have up-ticked this year is that prices are very low. The average price for the first half of 2011 for all single family is $174,393. The last time there was a lower annual price was 1997 or $166,213. Taking this into account, closings are up the first half of 2011 over the past three years, but the overall dollar volume is still down. If the year-to-year total volume is down, maybe we are still heading down even if the total closed units are up?

The average sale price for single family detached was $197,900 in June 2011. This is 6.9% below June 2010 and $87,000 below the all time June high of $284,875 in 2007. June 2007 was also the all time monthly average high.

The average sale price for single family attached for June 2011 was $125,130. This is 13.6% below June 2010 and the last time a June had a lower price was 1998′s $121,397.

There were 3,781 expired listings for all single family in June 2011. The last time there were fewer expired listings for a June was 2002.

There were 1,675 withdrawn listings for all single family in June 2011. The last time there were fewer withdrawn listings for a June was 2004.

The reduction of expired and withdrawn listings is always a positive trend. However, our inventory levels are now almost at 2003 levels, so this somewhat mitigates the positive.

The active inventory for all single family was 39,445 at the end of June. The last time a June inventory was lower was 2003, 37,745. The all time June high was 2008 at 69,988 or a reduction of 43.6%. I expect inventories for all single family to remain flat or even decline for the rest of the year, as our ’1998′ prices will detour many consumers from putting their homes on the market.

Under contracts continue to increase year over year, as June was very favorable an July looks promising. This has to continue the rest of the year for a bona fide recovery to be realized.

From Steve Palm of Smartnumbers
©2011 Smartnumbers